San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Tyler FitzgeraldBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jordan HicksPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Landon KnackPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fitzgerald singled to left, Chapman scored, Conforto to second.2–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 8Ohtani singled to center, Pages scored, Heyward to third.1–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 4Ohtani doubled to right, Biggio scored and Heyward scored.1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 2Fitzgerald homered to left (379 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Lux doubled to right, Freeman scored and T. Hernández scored, Lux out stretching at third.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 59%
- ML SF +135 / LAD -160
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 61.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -145
- SF +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.8 – 4.7 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −2 | SF: Jordan Hicks: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Landon Knack: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +85 Elo | LAD 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.01st of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 26th of 3020–30 | Road vs home | 32–184th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–51 | 48–53 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–31 | 44–45 |
| Underdog | 32–20 | 4–8 |
| Overs–unders | 53–46–1 | 51–49–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 9–14 LAD in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 23.