Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting1-4
- Tanner GordonPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Giants- Tyler FitzgeraldBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hayden BirdsongPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fitzgerald homered to left center (385 feet).0–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 5Ramos singled to right, Soler scored.0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Yastrzemski hit sacrifice fly to right, Casali scored, Soler to third.0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Wisely doubled to left, Chapman scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Yastrzemski tripled to right, Soler scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SF 64%
- ML COL +170 / SF -205
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- SF: Elo 64.1%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- SF -181
- COL +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.1 – 4.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1419 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +8 | COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SF: Hayden Birdsong: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +101 Elo | SF 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 62.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 29th of 3014–38 | Road vs home | 30–229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–51 | 51–53 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 18–31 |
| Underdog | 49–45 | 33–22 |
| Overs–unders | 56–45 | 56–47–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 7–17 SF in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 24.