Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Michael TogliaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Randy RodriguezPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stallings grounded out to second, Toglia scored, Cave to second.4–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Toglia homered to left center (368 feet).3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Chapman singled to left, Hill scored and Soler scored, Fitzgerald to second.2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Goodman singled to right, Tovar scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Blackmon singled to right, Tovar scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2Soler hit a ground rule double, Hill scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Hill tripled to right, Conforto scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Schmitt homered to left center (422 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SF 62%
- ML COL +150 / SF -180
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- SF: Elo 61.7%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- SF -161
- COL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.2 – 4.3 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −13 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Erik Miller: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +83 Elo | SF 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 60.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 29th of 3014–39 | Road vs home | 31–227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–52 | 52–53 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 19–31 |
| Underdog | 49–46 | 33–22 |
| Overs–unders | 56–46 | 56–48–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 7–18 SF in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 25.