Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Angels- Matt ThaissBatting3-5, 5 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Thaiss singled to center, Pillar scored.7–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–10
- 8Neto sacrificed to pitcher, Rengifo scored, Calhoun to second.7–9
- 7Adell homered to center (439 feet).7–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 17–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–8
- 7Tovar homered to left center (422 feet).7–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–7
- 4Thaiss singled to right, Rengifo scored and Ward scored, Neto to third.6–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–7
- 4Ward singled to left, Schanuel scored, Rengifo to second.6–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 3Thaiss doubled to right, Calhoun scored and Neto scored.6–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 2McMahon homered to left (359 feet), Hilliard scored and Blackmon scored.6–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 2Tovar hit sacrifice fly to center, Díaz scored, Hilliard to third.3–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 1Ward singled to center, Schanuel scored and Rengifo scored.2–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 1Rodgers doubled to left, Tovar scored, McMahon to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Bryant hit sacrifice fly to right, Blackmon scored, Tovar to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 55%
- ML COL +115 / LAA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- LAA: Elo 56.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LAA -124
- COL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.0 – 4.5 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1416 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −10 | COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +47 Elo | LAA 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 29th of 3014–40 | Road vs home | 23–3228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–52 | 58–48 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 5–18 |
| Underdog | 50–46 | 53–30 |
| Overs–unders | 57–46 | 53–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–1 LAA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.