Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Osvaldo BidoPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Angels- Taylor WardBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5Schanuel hit by pitch, Pillar scored, Neto to second, O'Hoppe to third.6–8
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–8
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 36–8
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–8
- 4Ward homered to left center (407 feet), Neto scored, Schanuel scored and Rengifo scored.6–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 16–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–7
- 3Calhoun singled to left, Adell scored and Schanuel scored.6–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 3Rengifo grounded out to second, Neto scored, Schanuel to second, Adell to third.6–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 3McCann doubled to left, Toro scored.6–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 36–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 26–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 3Toro singled to center, Rooker scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 3Rooker doubled to right, Bleday scored, Butler scored and Andujar scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Andujar grounded into fielder's choice to second, Nevin scored, Butler safe at third on fielding error by second baseman Drury.1–0
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 57%
- ML OAK +125 / LAA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- LAA: Elo 56.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- LAA -135
- OAK +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.4 – 5.1 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +4 | OAK: Osvaldo Bido: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +44 Elo | LAA 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 28th of 3018–36 | Road vs home | 22–3228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–51 | 57–48 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–7 | 4–18 |
| Underdog | 48–44 | 53–30 |
| Overs–unders | 51–55 | 52–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 14–11 LAA in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 25.