Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching7.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Tyler LocklearBatting1-4
- Logan GilbertPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 5Marlowe grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Vosler scored, Moore out at second.5–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 5Rengifo singled to center, Moniak scored and Neto scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Neto sacrificed, Drury scored on throwing error by pitcher Gilbert, Schanuel scored, Neto to second, Moniak safe at third.3–0
- 5Moniak walked, O'Hoppe scored, Drury to second, Schanuel to third.1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 41–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 59%
- ML LAA +135 / SEA -160
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 62.5%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -145
- LAA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 2.8 – 3.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +11 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +89 Elo | SEA 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 63.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 24th of 3021–28 | Road vs home | 31–217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–45 | 42–59 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–15 | 24–44 |
| Underdog | 51–30 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 51–49 | 41–58–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 9–12 SEA in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 21.