Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Luke RaleyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8McCormick singled to center, Alvarez scored.4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Peña homered to left center (414 feet).3–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Raley homered to right (363 feet), Polanco scored and Haniger scored.2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Alvarez tripled to left, Dubón scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Polanco homered to right center (394 feet).1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 4Alvarez homered to right (429 feet).1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Moore tripled to left, Rojas scored and Raley scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 50%
- ML HOU -110 / SEA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 47.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -100
- HOU -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.8 – 3.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −1 | HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +16 Elo | HOU 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 17th of 3022–25 | Road vs home | 30–207th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–44 | 41–58 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 31–35 | 23–43 |
| Underdog | 20–9 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 39–53–3 | 40–57–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 8–14 SEA in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 22.