Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Astros- Jake MeyersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Loperfido grounded out to first, Singleton scored, Peña to third.4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Smith homered to right (383 feet), Seager scored.4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Meyers homered to left (376 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Smith homered to right (392 feet), Seager scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 53%
- ML TEX +105 / HOU -125
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 56.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- TEX +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.1 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +14 | TEX: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +44 Elo | HOU 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3021–29 | Road vs home | 28–209th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–53 | 49–43 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 21–34 | 31–34 |
| Underdog | 21–19 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders | 39–55–1 | 39–50–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 12–17 HOU in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 29.