Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Leody TaverasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Neto homered to left center (387 feet), Drury scored.2–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5Taveras homered to right center (401 feet), Heim scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 30–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 3Neto doubled to left, Drury scored, Thaiss to third, Neto thrown out at third.0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Moniak homered to right center (387 feet), Thaiss scored and Neto scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Neto singled to right, Drury scored on fielding error by right fielder Jankowski, Thaiss to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML TEX -125 / LAA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- TEX: Elo 57.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- LAA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.9 – 4.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −6 | TEX: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +50 Elo | TEX 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3020–27 | Road vs home | 18–2828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–50 | 49–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–32 | 4–15 |
| Underdog | 21–18 | 45–27 |
| Overs–unders | 38–53–1 | 46–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 10–8 LAA in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.