Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jose CaballeroBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Grossman walked, Smith scored, Taveras to second, Langford to third.2–13
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 42–13
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–13
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 32–13
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–12
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–12
- 7Grossman homered to left (346 feet).2–12
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–12
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–11
- 6Heim homered to right (389 feet).2–11
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–11
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–11
- 5Hill singled to right, Heim scored, Jankowski to second, Taveras to third.2–10
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–10
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–9
- 5Jankowski reached on infield single to first, Lowe scored, Taveras to second, Heim to third.2–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–9
- 5Taveras singled to left, Langford scored, Heim to second, Lowe to third.2–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–8
- 4Seager homered to right (382 feet), Jankowski scored and Semien scored.2–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 4Jankowski singled to center, Lowe scored and Heim scored, Jankowski to second.2–4
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Heim singled to center, Langford scored, Heim to second, Lowe to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 54%
- ML TB +110 / TEX -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- TEX: Elo 55.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -119
- TB +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.6 – 3.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +13 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +39 Elo | TEX 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 7th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3021–20 | Road vs home | 23–2116th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–49 | 40–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–31 | 19–31 |
| Underdog | 22–18 | 21–18 |
| Overs–unders | 44–45 | 35–53–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–10 TEX in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.