San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jurickson ProfarBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting2-4
- Max ScherzerPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kim hit sacrifice fly to left, Solano scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 32–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 12–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 6Langford singled to left, Seager scored, Lowe to second.2–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 6Profar homered to right (361 feet).2–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Solano doubled to left, Profar scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 52%
- ML SD +100 / TEX -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 51.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -109
- SD +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.7 – 3.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +10 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +8 Elo | TEX 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3022–21 | Road vs home | 21–2016th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–43 | 39–47 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–32 | 18–29 |
| Underdog | 26–11 | 21–18 |
| Overs–unders | 49–40–1 | 35–50–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 4–1 TEX in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.