San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Adam MazurPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7D. Peralta homered to center (427 feet), Solano scored.6–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 6Arraez singled to left, Kim scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 5Merrill reached on infield single to third, Profar scored, Cronenworth to third.3–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 22–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 4Heim hit sacrifice fly to center, Langford scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 3Smith doubled to right, Seager scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Seager doubled to right, Semien scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Taveras hit sacrifice fly to center, Heim scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Machado homered to left center (399 feet), Cronenworth scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 60%
- ML SD +140 / TEX -165
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- TEX: Elo 53.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TEX -149
- SD +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.8 – 4.7 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −5 | SD: Adam Mazur: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +23 Elo | TEX 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 11th of 3021–21 | Road vs home | 21–1916th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–43 | 39–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–32 | 18–28 |
| Underdog | 25–11 | 21–18 |
| Overs–unders | 48–40–1 | 34–50–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 3–1 TEX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.