San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Donovan SolanoBatting1-3
- Dylan CeasePitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Nathaniel LoweBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Ornelas doubled to left, Taveras scored.0–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 4Semien singled to left, Taveras scored.0–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3Lowe homered to left center (383 feet), Smith scored.0–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 30–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 2Taveras doubled to center, Heim scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Lowe homered to right (373 feet), Smith scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 52%
- ML SD -120 / TEX +100
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- SD: Elo 47.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -109
- TEX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.8 – 3.7 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +9 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +18 Elo | TEX 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 10th of 3021–20 | Road vs home | 20–1916th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–42 | 38–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–31 | 18–28 |
| Underdog | 25–11 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 48–39–1 | 34–49–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 3–0 TEX in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.