Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting1-4
- Shane BazPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 3Lowe singled to center, Seager scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Seager doubled to center, Semien scored and Ornelas scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 50%
- ML TB -110 / TEX -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- TEX: Elo 51.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TEX -100
- TB -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.3 – 4.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −10 | TB: Shane Baz (no track record yet) · TEX: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +10 Elo | TEX 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 7th of 3021–18 | Road vs home | 21–2117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–48 | 39–48 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–31 | 18–30 |
| Underdog | 21–17 | 21–18 |
| Overs–unders | 44–43 | 35–51–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–8 TEX in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.