Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Semien homered to left center (422 feet), Taveras scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 7Díaz homered to left (373 feet), DeLuca scored and Walls scored.3–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Lowe singled to center, Semien scored, Seager to third.0–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Knizner singled to center, Heim scored, Taveras to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 50%
- ML TB -110 / TEX -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- TEX: Elo 52.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TEX -100
- TB -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 3.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | 0 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +17 Elo | TEX 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 8th of 3021–19 | Road vs home | 22–2116th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–49 | 40–48 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–31 | 19–30 |
| Underdog | 21–18 | 21–18 |
| Overs–unders | 44–44 | 35–52–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–9 TEX in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.