Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Angels- Mickey MoniakBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Davis DanielPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rendon singled to center, Moniak scored, Guillorme to second.9–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–3
- 7Langford homered to left (409 feet), Seager scored.9–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 4Semien singled to left, Jankowski scored and Taveras scored.7–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 25–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 15–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 4Taveras singled to right, Lowe scored, Jankowski to third.5–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Lowe singled to center, García scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 34–3
- 4Langford scored on a balk, García to second on a balk.3–3
- 4Langford scored on a balk, García to second on a balk.3–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 2Adell singled to left, Moniak scored.2–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Moniak tripled to right, O'Hoppe scored and Drury scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Seager homered to center (457 feet), Semien scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 59%
- ML TEX -155 / LAA +135
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- TEX: Elo 54.2%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- TEX -143
- LAA +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.6 – 3.9 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +6 | TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Davis Daniel: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +29 Elo | TEX 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 25th of 3018–27 | Road vs home | 18–2628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–49 | 48–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–31 | 4–15 |
| Underdog | 21–18 | 44–26 |
| Overs–unders | 36–53–1 | 44–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 8–8 LAA in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.