Los Angeles Angels at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Brandon DruryBatting1-4
- Jose SorianoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Busch homered to right (379 feet), Hoerner scored.0–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 5Busch grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Amaya scored, Hoerner out at second.0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Hoerner hit sacrifice fly to center, Mastrobuoni scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 3Amaya singled to left, Swanson scored, Amaya thrown out at second, Mastrobuoni to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML LAA +125 / CHC -150
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 57.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- CHC -135
- LAA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.4 – 5.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −4 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +51 Elo | CHC 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 27th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 7th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 21st of 3019–25 | Road vs home | 24–2114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–40 | 44–46 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–15 | 11–29 |
| Underdog | 44–25 | 33–17 |
| Overs–unders | 44–44 | 41–48–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 4–1 CHC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.