Los Angeles Angels at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jo AdellBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-4
- Kyle HendricksPitching2.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 5Adell homered to left center (431 feet).7–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 26–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 4O'Hoppe grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Ward scored, Calhoun out at second.6–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 3O'Hoppe scored on throwing error by catcher Nido, Neto stole second.5–0
- 3O'Hoppe scored on throwing error by catcher Nido, Neto stole second.5–0
- 3Neto singled to center, Calhoun scored, O'Hoppe to third.4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3O'Hoppe singled to right, Ward scored, Calhoun to second.3–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Hiura singled to right, Adell scored, Schanuel to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1O'Hoppe hit by pitch, Schanuel scored, Ward to second, Hiura to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 58%
- ML LAA +130 / CHC -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 55.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -140
- LAA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.9 – 4.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −21 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 1.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +36 Elo | CHC 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3018–25 | Road vs home | 24–2014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–40 | 44–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–15 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 43–25 | 33–17 |
| Overs–unders | 44–43 | 41–47–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 3–1 CHC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.