Los Angeles Angels at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching9.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Hoerner singled to center, Nido scored.1–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 5Happ singled to center, Busch scored, Happ to second.1–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 5Ward singled to left, Hiura scored.1–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Happ singled to center, Busch scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Suzuki homered to center (416 feet), Bellinger scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 63%
- ML LAA +160 / CHC -190
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -170
- LAA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.2 – 5.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −1 | LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +62 Elo | CHC 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 62.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.420th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3018–24 | Road vs home | 23–2014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–39 | 43–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–15 | 10–28 |
| Underdog | 43–24 | 33–17 |
| Overs–unders | 44–42 | 41–46–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 3–0 CHC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.