Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Roansy ContrerasPitching2.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8García homered to right center (405 feet).5–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 15–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 4O'Hoppe homered to center (402 feet).4–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 3Ward singled to right, Schanuel scored on fielding error by right fielder Hill, Ward thrown out at third.4–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Schanuel doubled to center, Rendon scored.4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 3Langford hit sacrifice fly to left, Semien scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Smith reached on infield single to shortstop, Hill scored, Seager to second, Semien to third.3–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Semien hit a ground rule double, Knizner scored, Hill to third.2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2O'Hoppe homered to left center (393 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Smith homered to center (398 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 62%
- ML TEX -185 / LAA +155
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- TEX: Elo 57.8%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -166
- LAA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.8 – 3.7 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +3 | TEX: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Roansy Contreras: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +55 Elo | TEX 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 24th of 3019–27 | Road vs home | 18–2728th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–49 | 48–42 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–31 | 4–15 |
| Underdog | 21–18 | 44–27 |
| Overs–unders | 37–53–1 | 45–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 9–8 LAA in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.