Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Lowe singled to left, Smith scored.2–1
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Diaz singled to center, Bregman scored, Alvarez to second.1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Semien homered to left center (400 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML TEX -125 / HOU +105
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 47.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- HOU +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.4 – 4.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −7 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +21 Elo | HOU 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 26th of 3020–29 | Road vs home | 28–199th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–52 | 48–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 21–33 | 31–34 |
| Underdog | 21–19 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 39–54–1 | 39–49–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 11–17 HOU in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 28.