Miami Marlins at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Roddery MunozPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Astros- Jon SingletonBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Jake BlossPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Loperfido hit sacrifice fly to center, Singleton scored.3–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 23–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 5Chisholm Jr. homered to right (397 feet).3–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 4Bregman grounded into fielder's choice to third, Meyers scored, Altuve out at second, Salazar to third.2–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 4Meyers doubled to center, Loperfido scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 2Salazar grounded out to first, Cabbage scored.2–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 32–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Fortes singled to left, Edwards scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul1–2
- 1Peña singled to right, Diaz scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Singleton hit sacrifice fly to center, Bregman scored, Diaz to third.1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1De La Cruz homered to left (354 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 61%
- ML MIA +150 / HOU -175
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 61.2%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -159
- MIA +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.7 – 4.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −26 | MIA: Roddery Munoz: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · HOU: Jake Bloss: team allows 1.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +79 Elo | HOU 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 67.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 66.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 27th of 3014–29 | Road vs home | 26–1910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–53 | 46–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 29–34 |
| Underdog | 37–34 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 49–42–1 | 37–49–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 1–4 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.