Miami Marlins at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8De La Cruz singled to left, Chisholm Jr. scored.3–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 22–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 7Bregman homered to left (368 feet), McCormick scored.2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7J. Sánchez homered to left center (344 feet).2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Bregman singled to left, McCormick scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2McCormick singled to left, Meyers scored, Dubón to second.1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Chisholm Jr. homered to right (375 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 68%
- ML MIA +195 / HOU -240
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 66.7%, market 67.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -208
- MIA +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.4 – 5.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +12 | MIA: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +121 Elo | HOU 66.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 64.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 67.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 27th of 3014–27 | Road vs home | 24–1913th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–52 | 45–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 28–33 |
| Underdog | 36–33 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 48–41–1 | 36–48–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 1–2 HOU in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.