Miami Marlins at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Bryan HoeingPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Astros- Joey LoperfidoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 6Diaz singled to center, Bregman scored and Cabbage scored.1–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–7
- 6Cabbage doubled to right, Altuve scored, Bregman to third.1–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 31–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 5Edwards singled to left, Rivera scored, Bride to second.1–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 4Bregman grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Loperfido scored.0–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 2Alvarez singled to center, Bregman scored.0–5
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2Loperfido homered to right center (394 feet), Meyers scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Meyers doubled to left, Singleton scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Diaz singled to right, Altuve scored, Alvarez thrown out at home.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 67%
- ML MIA +190 / HOU -230
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 65.9%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -202
- MIA +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.5 – 5.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +5 | MIA: Bryan Hoeing: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +115 Elo | HOU 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 65.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 27th of 3014–28 | Road vs home | 25–1911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–52 | 45–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–19 | 28–34 |
| Underdog | 37–33 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 48–42–1 | 36–49–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 1–3 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.