Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Seager singled to right, Jankowski scored, Semien to third.3–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 6Altuve homered to left (365 feet), Dubón scored and McCormick scored.2–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 6Seager homered to left (344 feet), Semien scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Bregman homered to left center (380 feet).0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Meyers homered to left center (382 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Alvarez reached on infield single to shortstop, Dubón scored, McCormick to second.0–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML TEX +125 / HOU -145
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.1%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -133
- TEX +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.9 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −1 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +35 Elo | HOU 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 24th of 3020–28 | Road vs home | 27–199th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–51 | 47–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 21–33 | 30–34 |
| Underdog | 21–18 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 38–54–1 | 38–49–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 11–16 HOU in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 27.
- Apr 14TEX 5 @ HOU 8Picked HOU 51%Hit
- Apr 13TEX 2 @ HOU 9Picked HOU 56%Hit
- Apr 12TEX 12 @ HOU 8Picked HOU 53%Miss
- Apr 8HOU 10 @ TEX 5Picked TEX 54%Miss
- Apr 7HOU 3 @ TEX 1Picked TEX 51%Miss
- Apr 6HOU 2 @ TEX 7Picked TEX 50%Hit
- Apr 5HOU 2 @ TEX 10Picked HOU 56%Miss
- Oct 23TEX 11 @ HOU 4PlayoffsPicked HOU 52%Miss