Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Diaz homered to left (357 feet).4–2
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 34–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 7Meyers homered to right center (391 feet), Peña scored.3–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Rodríguez homered to left (382 feet), Robles scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Peña reached on infield single to third, Bregman scored, Diaz to second.1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 55%
- ML HOU +115 / SEA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 49.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -124
- HOU +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.5 – 4.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +4 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +6 Elo | HOU 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 19th of 3021–25 | Road vs home | 30–197th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–44 | 41–57 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 31–35 | 23–42 |
| Underdog | 19–9 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 39–52–3 | 40–56–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 7–14 SEA in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 21.