Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Carson FulmerPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Adell homered to left center (399 feet), Moniak scored and Neto scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 7Robles scored on throwing error by catcher O'Hoppe.2–0
- 7Robles scored on throwing error by catcher O'Hoppe.2–0
- 6Crawford homered to center (410 feet).1–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 61%
- ML SEA -175 / LAA +145
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 57.5%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -156
- LAA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.7 – 3.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +7 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Carson Fulmer: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +53 Elo | SEA 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 20th of 3022–27 | Road vs home | 21–2928th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–55 | 52–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–40 | 4–15 |
| Underdog | 18–15 | 48–28 |
| Overs–unders | 40–54–2 | 48–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 12–7 LAA in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.