Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Angels- Willie CalhounBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Calhoun homered to right center (409 feet), Ward scored.5–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 10Garver hit a ground rule double, Rojas scored.5–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Schanuel singled to right, Adell scored, Rendon to second.4–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 34–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 4Adell singled to right, Moniak scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Raleigh homered to left center (423 feet), Crawford scored.4–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 1Calhoun homered to right (381 feet), Rendon scored.2–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Rodríguez homered to right center (378 feet), Garver scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 56%
- ML SEA -140 / LAA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.9%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -128
- LAA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.5 – 4.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +9 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +48 Elo | SEA 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.028th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 19th of 3022–25 | Road vs home | 19–2928th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–53 | 50–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 23–38 | 4–15 |
| Underdog | 18–15 | 46–28 |
| Overs–unders | 39–53–2 | 47–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 12–5 LAA in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.