Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Angels- Mickey MoniakBatting2-3
- Kenny RosenbergPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Raleigh homered to left (397 feet), Clase scored and Crawford scored.11–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–0
- 6Crawford singled to left, Polanco scored, Clase to second.8–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 4Crawford homered to right (384 feet), Haniger scored.7–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 35–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 3Raleigh homered to right (361 feet).5–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 1Polanco singled to center, Raley scored and France scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1France grounded into fielder's choice to third, Raleigh scored, France to second, Raley safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Guillorme, Rodríguez out at third.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Rojas singled to right, Crawford scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 60%
- ML SEA -165 / LAA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -149
- LAA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.7 – 3.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +4 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jack Kochanowicz (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +39 Elo | SEA 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 19th of 3021–25 | Road vs home | 19–2828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–53 | 50–42 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 22–38 | 4–15 |
| Underdog | 18–15 | 46–27 |
| Overs–unders | 38–53–2 | 46–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 11–5 LAA in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.