Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching7.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Padres- Kyle HigashiokaBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Adam MazurPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Robles doubled to left, Raleigh scored.8–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 27–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 17–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–3
- 8Higashioka homered to left center (391 feet), D. Peralta scored.7–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 7Cronenworth homered to right (404 feet).7–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 7Raleigh homered to left (377 feet), Rodríguez scored.7–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 5Rodríguez homered to left center (411 feet).5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Raleigh homered to right center (379 feet), Rodríguez scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2France doubled to right, Polanco scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Rodríguez singled to left, Crawford scored, Garver to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 55%
- ML SEA -135 / SD +115
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 50.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -124
- SD +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.0 – 3.5 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −14 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Adam Mazur: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +4 Elo | SEA 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 21st of 3019–25 | Road vs home | 25–2316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–53 | 49–45 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–38 | 21–34 |
| Underdog | 17–15 | 27–11 |
| Overs–unders | 37–52–2 | 52–41–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–1 SD in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.