Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Padres- Ha-Seong KimBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Solano doubled to right, Cronenworth scored, Machado to third.7–5
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 17–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 10McCarthy grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Grichuk scored, Walker out at second.7–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 10Walker singled to center, Carroll scored and Perdomo scored, Grichuk to second.6–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 8Kim doubled to left, Solano scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 7Cronenworth reached on bunt single to third, Arraez scored, Profar to third.4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Profar doubled to left, Kim scored, Arraez to third.4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 7Perdomo tripled to left, Herrera scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 7Herrera doubled to left, Newman scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 4Gurriel Jr. homered to left center (402 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 54%
- ML ARI +110 / SD -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- SD: Elo 56.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.6 – 3.9 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +9 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +48 Elo | SD 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 17th of 3021–24 | Road vs home | 25–2114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–44 | 49–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 17–22 | 21–32 |
| Underdog | 27–22 | 27–11 |
| Overs–unders | 46–41–1 | 50–41–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 10–11 SD in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 21.