Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Alek ThomasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Machado homered to left center (396 feet), Wade scored.8–10
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–10
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–8
- 9Profar homered to right center (387 feet).8–8
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 38–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 28–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 18–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–7
- 9Grichuk homered to left (379 feet), Carroll scored.8–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 26–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 9Thomas homered to right center (413 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored, Moreno scored and McCarthy scored.6–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–7
- 6Higashioka homered to left center (383 feet), Johnson scored.2–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 4Higashioka singled to left, D. Peralta scored.2–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 4D. Peralta doubled to right, Merrill scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Merrill tripled to right, Cronenworth scored and Machado scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 2Merrill grounded out to shortstop, Machado scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML ARI -115 / SD -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 43.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- SD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 4.2 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +1 | ARI: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +48 Elo | SD 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 14th of 3021–23 | Road vs home | 24–2115th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–43 | 48–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–22 | 20–32 |
| Underdog | 27–21 | 27–11 |
| Overs–unders | 45–41–1 | 49–41–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 10–10 SD in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.