Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Padres- Jurickson ProfarBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Carroll grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Thomas scored, Newman out at second.9–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 28–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–1
- 9Thomas hit a ground rule double, Suárez scored.8–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 37–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 27–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 9Suárez doubled to center, Perdomo scored, Walker scored and McCarthy scored.7–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 8Moreno singled to left, Newman scored.4–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 7Suárez homered to left (350 feet), Perdomo scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 1Profar homered to right (362 feet).1–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Carroll homered to right center (397 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 60%
- ML ARI +140 / SD -165
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- SD: Elo 56.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SD -149
- ARI +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.8 – 4.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −8 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +48 Elo | SD 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 62.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 7th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 14th of 3022–24 | Road vs home | 25–2216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–44 | 49–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 17–22 | 21–33 |
| Underdog | 28–22 | 27–11 |
| Overs–unders | 47–41–1 | 51–41–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 11–11 SD in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 22.