Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Max SchuemannBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Langeliers homered to right (369 feet), Rooker scored.3–13
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–13
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–13
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–13
- 6Bleday homered to right center (400 feet), Andujar scored.3–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–11
- 6Andujar doubled to left, Butler scored.3–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–9
- 6Butler singled to left, Schuemann scored on fielding error by left fielder Ward, Butler to second.3–8
- 6Pitch 9 : Ball In Play3–8
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 6Schuemann doubled to right, Brown scored.3–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 6Schanuel homered to right (387 feet).3–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 4Schuemann homered to left (371 feet), Brown scored and B. Harris scored.2–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 4B. Harris singled to left, Gelof scored, Brown to second.2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Neto homered to left (397 feet).2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 3Butler tripled to right, Wilson scored and Schuemann scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Adell singled to right, Neto scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- OAK 53%
- ML LAA +105 / OAK -125
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- OAK: Elo 51.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- OAK -114
- LAA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.1 – 4.4 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +11 | LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OAK +9 Elo | OAK 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OAK 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 25th of 3019–26 | Road vs home | 22–2524th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–43 | 48–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–15 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 49–28 | 43–43 |
| Overs–unders | 48–48 | 45–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 10–9 OAK in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.