Oakland Athletics at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hogan HarrisPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Butler homered to center (414 feet), Gelof scored.6–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 34–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5Langeliers singled to left, Schuemann scored, Cameron to third.4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 3Sosa singled to center, Harper scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 3Langeliers singled to center, Andujar scored, Rooker to third.3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 3Rooker singled to right, Cameron scored, Andujar to third.2–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Andujar singled to left, Schuemann scored, Cameron to second.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pache doubled to right, Wilson scored, Marchán to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 69%
- ML OAK +210 / PHI -255
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 71.4%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -223
- OAK +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.4 – 5.1 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1426 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +2 | OAK: Hogan Harris: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +159 Elo | PHI 71.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 68.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 29th of 3013–35 | Road vs home | 36–131st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–48 | 49–44 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 39–35 |
| Underdog | 41–42 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders | 43–51 | 41–51–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 0–3 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.