Oakland Athletics at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tyler PhillipsPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Andujar doubled to right, B. Harris scored.5–11
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–11
- 8Castellanos doubled to left, Turner scored and Harper scored, Bohm to third.4–11
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–11
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–9
- 8Harper doubled to left, Stubbs scored and Schwarber scored, Turner to third.4–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 7Harper homered to left (378 feet).4–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 7B. Harris singled to center, Langeliers scored, Cameron to second.4–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 7Rooker homered to center (416 feet).3–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 4Turner homered to left center (402 feet), Schwarber scored.2–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 4Rojas homered to center (396 feet).2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Schwarber doubled to center, Stubbs scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 63%
- ML OAK +160 / PHI -190
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 68.9%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -170
- OAK +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.2 – 5.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −11 | OAK: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PHI: Tyler Phillips (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +139 Elo | PHI 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 66.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 28th of 3014–35 | Road vs home | 36–142nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–48 | 49–45 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 39–36 |
| Underdog | 42–42 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders | 43–52 | 41–52–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 1–3 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.