Oakland Athletics at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting3-6, 3 HR, 6 RBI
- Joey EstesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael MercadoPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gelof homered to center (421 feet), McCann scored, Langeliers scored and Brown scored.18–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play18–3
- 9Brown singled to left, Bleday scored, Langeliers to second, McCann to third.14–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play14–3
- 8Butler homered to right center (449 feet), Schuemann scored.13–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play13–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 113–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul13–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking13–3
- 8Brown homered to right (367 feet).11–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play11–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 211–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging11–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–3
- 7Rooker hit sacrifice fly to right, Bleday scored.10–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 210–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking10–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 110–3
- 7Butler homered to left (354 feet), Schuemann scored.9–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 29–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 19–3
- 6Stott hit sacrifice fly to left, Bohm scored on error and Harper scored on error.7–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
- 6Brown homered to right (418 feet).7–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 37–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 27–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 6Rooker homered to center (452 feet), Bleday scored.6–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 5Butler homered to center (429 feet), Schuemann scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 69%
- ML OAK +210 / PHI -255
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 70.4%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -223
- OAK +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.9 – 5.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1428 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −10 | OAK: Joey Estes: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PHI: Orion Kerkering (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +151 Elo | PHI 70.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 67.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.01st of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 28th of 3014–36 | Road vs home | 37–142nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–49 | 50–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 40–36 |
| Underdog | 42–43 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders | 44–52 | 42–52–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 1–4 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.