Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Mariners- Victor RoblesBatting2-4
- Bryce MillerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Adell singled to center, Drury scored on error and Neto scored on throwing error by center fielder Robles, Adell to third.3–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Ward hit sacrifice fly to center, Adell scored, Rendon to third.1–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Raleigh singled to center, Crawford scored, Robles to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 60%
- ML LAA +140 / SEA -165
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 60.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -149
- LAA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.3 – 4.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −5 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +72 Elo | SEA 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 61.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 25th of 3020–28 | Road vs home | 31–206th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–45 | 42–58 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–15 | 24–43 |
| Underdog | 50–30 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 51–48 | 41–57–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 8–12 SEA in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.