Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Andujar singled to left, Schuemann scored, Butler to third.2–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Neto doubled to left, Ward scored, O'Hoppe to third.2–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–7
- 4Butler doubled to right, McCann scored, Schuemann scored and B. Harris scored, Butler out stretching at third.1–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 4Schuemann walked, Rooker scored, B. Harris to second, McCann to third.1–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 41–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 31–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3Rendon hit sacrifice fly to left, Adell scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 1Rooker homered to left (445 feet), Andujar scored and Bleday scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- OAK 57%
- ML LAA +125 / OAK -150
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- OAK: Elo 51.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- OAK -135
- LAA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.9 – 4.6 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −10 | LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · OAK: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OAK +8 Elo | OAK 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OAK 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 25th of 3019–27 | Road vs home | 23–2523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–44 | 49–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–15 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 49–29 | 43–43 |
| Overs–unders | 49–48 | 46–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 10–10 OAK in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.