Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mickey MoniakBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carson FulmerPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Miguel AndujarBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey EstesPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9O'Hoppe scored on Otanez wild pitch, Schanuel to second on wild pitch by Otanez, Drury to third on wild pitch by Otanez.8–5
- 9O'Hoppe scored on Otanez wild pitch, Schanuel to second on wild pitch by Otanez, Drury to third on wild pitch by Otanez.8–5
- 8Pillar doubled to center, Adell scored and Rendon scored, Pillar to third.7–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging7–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 27–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 8Rendon grounded into fielder's choice to third, Drury scored, Schanuel out at second, Adell to third.5–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 8Schanuel reached on infield single to shortstop, Neto scored, Adell to second, Drury to third.4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 8Adell walked, O'Hoppe scored, Drury to second, Neto to third.3–5
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball 43–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 33–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 7Butler scored on Joyce wild pitch, Rooker to second on wild pitch by Joyce, Andujar to third on wild pitch by Joyce.2–5
- 7Butler scored on Joyce wild pitch, Rooker to second on wild pitch by Joyce, Andujar to third on wild pitch by Joyce.2–5
- 7Rooker walked, Schuemann scored, Andujar to second, Butler to third.2–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 42–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 32–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5Andujar homered to left (377 feet).2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Moniak homered to right (377 feet).2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Drury hit sacrifice fly to center, Calhoun scored, Neto to second, O'Hoppe to third.1–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- OAK 53%
- ML LAA +105 / OAK -125
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- OAK: Elo 48.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- OAK -114
- LAA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.1 – 4.4 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −4 | LAA: Carson Fulmer: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · OAK: Joey Estes: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +10 Elo | LAA 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OAK 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 26th of 3019–28 | Road vs home | 24–2521st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–45 | 50–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–15 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 49–30 | 43–43 |
| Overs–unders | 50–48 | 47–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 10–11 OAK in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.