Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jake BlossPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Osvaldo BidoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Peña homered to left center (418 feet).2–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 22–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 12–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 7Langeliers homered to left (374 feet).1–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–7
- 6Butler doubled to right, Schuemann scored.1–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
- 5Toro singled to right, Bleday scored, Langeliers to third.1–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4Gelof homered to left center (411 feet).1–5
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 31–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4Brown homered to center (414 feet).1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 3Butler homered to right center (411 feet).1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Caratini homered to center (404 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Rooker homered to left center (392 feet), Butler scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML HOU -145 / OAK +120
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 61.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -130
- OAK +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.5 – 4.0 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −21 | HOU: Jake Bloss: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · OAK: Osvaldo Bido: team allows 1.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +78 Elo | HOU 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 20th of 3022–27 | Road vs home | 25–2621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–46 | 51–50 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 31–36 | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 20–10 | 44–43 |
| Overs–unders | 40–54–3 | 48–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 16–5 OAK in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 21.