Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Seth BrownBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Angels- Taylor WardBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carson FulmerPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Brown singled to right, Langeliers scored, Toro to third.5–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Rooker homered to center (414 feet), Bleday scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 2Brown homered to right center (396 feet), Langeliers scored.2–4
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 32–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 1Schanuel homered to right center (410 feet), O'Hoppe scored.0–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Ward homered to center (415 feet), Rengifo scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 52%
- ML OAK +100 / LAA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- LAA: Elo 54.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAA -109
- OAK +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.7 – 4.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +8 | OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Carson Fulmer: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +32 Elo | LAA 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 28th of 3016–36 | Road vs home | 22–3028th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–51 | 57–46 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–7 | 4–16 |
| Underdog | 46–44 | 53–30 |
| Overs–unders | 51–53 | 52–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 12–11 LAA in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.