Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ross StriplingPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Kenny RosenbergPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 4Cameron homered to right center (382 feet), Nevin scored.6–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 36–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 26–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 3Butler homered to center (413 feet), Schuemann scored.4–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 2Rengifo doubled to shortstop, Neto scored and Rendon scored.2–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 2Moniak hit sacrifice fly to right, Schanuel scored, Neto to second.2–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 2Neto singled to center, O'Hoppe scored, Schanuel to third.2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2O'Hoppe singled to left, Pillar scored, O'Hoppe to second.2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Rooker homered to left (441 feet).2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Butler scored on error by third baseman Rendon.1–0
- 1Butler scored on error by third baseman Rendon.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 51%
- ML OAK -105 / LAA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.4 pts
- LAA: Elo 58.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAA -104
- OAK +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.7 – 4.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +19 | OAK: Ross Stripling: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Kenny Rosenberg: team allows 0.97 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +60 Elo | LAA 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 28th of 3015–36 | Road vs home | 22–2928th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–51 | 57–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–7 | 4–15 |
| Underdog | 45–44 | 53–30 |
| Overs–unders | 50–53 | 51–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 11–11 LAA in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 22.