Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Brandon DruryBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Mitch HanigerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Drury singled to center, Pillar scored, Drury out stretching at second.2–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 8Calhoun singled to left, Schanuel scored.1–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Haniger homered to center (405 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 60%
- ML LAA +140 / SEA -165
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 62.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -149
- LAA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.3 – 4.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | 0 | LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +87 Elo | SEA 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 63.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 21st of 3022–28 | Road vs home | 31–227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–45 | 42–60 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–15 | 24–45 |
| Underdog | 52–30 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 51–50 | 41–59–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 10–12 SEA in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 22.