Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Chas McCormickBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Athletics- Miguel AndujarBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching6.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Y. Diaz hit sacrifice fly to center, Bregman scored.8–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Bregman doubled to left, Altuve scored and McCormick scored.7–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 7Altuve doubled to left, Singleton scored, McCormick to third.5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Peña singled to left, Y. Diaz scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5McCormick homered to center (420 feet).3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2Altuve singled to left, Singleton scored, Altuve out stretching at second.2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Andujar doubled to right, Butler scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Y. Diaz hit sacrifice fly to right, Altuve scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 58%
- ML HOU -155 / OAK +130
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 58.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -140
- OAK +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.6 – 3.9 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +15 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +58 Elo | HOU 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.726th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 20th of 3022–28 | Road vs home | 26–2618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–47 | 52–50 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 31–37 | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 20–10 | 45–43 |
| Overs–unders | 41–54–3 | 49–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 16–6 OAK in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 22.