Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 3Schanuel homered to right (374 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 1Langeliers homered to center (411 feet), Butler scored and Rooker scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 55%
- ML OAK +115 / LAA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- LAA: Elo 55.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LAA -124
- OAK +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.0 – 4.5 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +8 | OAK: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +41 Elo | LAA 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 28th of 3017–36 | Road vs home | 22–3128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–51 | 57–47 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–7 | 4–17 |
| Underdog | 47–44 | 53–30 |
| Overs–unders | 51–54 | 52–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 13–11 LAA in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 24.