Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Davis DanielPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Doyle homered to left (431 feet).2–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5O'Hoppe homered to right center (376 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Bryant singled to left, Tovar scored, McMahon to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 55%
- ML COL +115 / LAA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- LAA: Elo 57.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LAA -124
- COL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.0 – 4.5 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1415 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −8 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Davis Daniel: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +52 Elo | LAA 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 29th of 3014–41 | Road vs home | 24–3228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–53 | 59–48 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 6–18 |
| Underdog | 50–47 | 53–30 |
| Overs–unders | 58–46 | 54–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–2 LAA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.