Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Gavin LuxBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Padres- Luis CampusanoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Merrill doubled to right, Bogaerts scored, Machado to third.1–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 4Bogaerts hit sacrifice fly to center, Arraez scored.1–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 4Profar singled to right, Johnson scored, Arraez to third.1–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 4Campusano homered to left (346 feet).1–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 3Lux doubled to right, Ahmed scored, Ohtani out at home on runner's fielder's choice.1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 2Profar singled to right, Johnson scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2Arraez grounded out to first, Campusano scored, Johnson to third.0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Johnson grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Kim scored on fielding error by pitcher Kershaw, Johnson to first on fielding error by pitcher Kershaw, Campusano to second.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 54%
- ML LAD +110 / SD -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- SD: Elo 48.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -119
- LAD +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.6 – 3.9 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +6 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +8 Elo | LAD 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 9th of 3028–25 | Road vs home | 27–2719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–56 | 58–51 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 46–47 | 24–36 |
| Underdog | 6–9 | 33–15 |
| Overs–unders | 55–52–1 | 59–49–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 12–10 SD in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 22.