Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Cavan BiggioBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Solano singled to left, Kim scored, Profar to second, Higashioka to third.5–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - Pitch Timer Violation 15–6
- 9Merrill homered to right (394 feet).5–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 9Machado homered to left center (414 feet).5–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 3Cronenworth doubled to right, Profar scored.5–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 3Profar singled to right, Arraez scored.5–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 2Machado homered to center (410 feet).5–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 1Biggio homered to right (332 feet), Pages scored.5–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 25–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 1Pages singled to center, Smith scored and Heyward scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Lux hit sacrifice fly to center, Ohtani scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 55%
- ML LAD -135 / SD +115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 50.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -124
- SD +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.0 – 3.5 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | 0 | LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +6 Elo | LAD 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 8th of 3028–24 | Road vs home | 26–2721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–55 | 57–51 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 46–46 | 24–36 |
| Underdog | 6–9 | 32–15 |
| Overs–unders | 54–52–1 | 58–49–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 12–9 SD in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 21.