San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Kyle HigashiokaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Juan YepezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Machado doubled to center, Bogaerts scored.12–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play12–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul12–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 112–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–3
- 4Higashioka homered to left (386 feet), Merrill scored.11–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 111–3
- 4Merrill tripled to center, Kim scored.9–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 19–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–3
- 4Cronenworth singled to center, Profar scored and Bogaerts scored.8–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 28–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 3Johnson sacrificed to pitcher, Merrill scored, Higashioka to third.6–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 3Higashioka doubled to left, Kim scored, Merrill to third.5–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 2Profar homered to center (417 feet), Arraez scored.4–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 2Arraez singled to center, Kim scored and Merrill scored.2–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 1Yepez homered to left center (390 feet), Winker scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Winker singled to left, Thomas scored, Winker to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 50%
- ML SD -110 / WSH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- WSH: Elo 46.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- WSH -100
- SD -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.3 – 4.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +4 | SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +23 Elo | SD 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 5th of 3026–22 | Road vs home | 23–2524th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–50 | 56–45 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–36 | 9–11 |
| Underdog | 30–14 | 47–34 |
| Overs–unders | 54–48–1 | 48–52–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 7–3 WSH in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.